Accurately Measuring Schedule Risk

Instead of relying on the manager to subjectively determine schedule risk factors, the Numetrics solution (NMX Risk Analyzer™) objectively measures schedule risk. It calculates the target chip’s design complexity using Numetrics’ patented design complexity calculation technology and simultaneously analyzes both the manpower and time budgeted to the project. With that information, it calculates the productivity assumed, or implied, in the project plan and compares it against both the industry norm and that particular organization’s past performance. The comparison enables managers to quickly assess whether the schedule is realistic, given the complexity of the design and the manpower and time budgeted. Figure 1 illustrates an example.

Figure 1.The power curve‚ fit to the data‚ shows the IC development productivity that can be expected for IC teams of different sizes. The target project (shown as a triangle) is in its planning phase and is assuming a productivity calculated by Risk Analyzer from the project’s plan that is 4.5 times higher than the norm for teams of that size. It’s a lofty goal that the team is unlikely to achieve, making the risk of schedule miss nearly certain.